HDD: Taylor Swift (900K-1M)

[Wayne]

SPEAK OUT: Early word from retail is that Taylor Swift’s Speak Now (Big Machine) is “huge” and “exploding,” with some initial projections in the 800-900k range—downright stunning for this day and age. On top of that, half of the iTunes Top 20 tracks are from the album. So how high can Speak Now go in week one? Won’t be long till we find out. (10/26a)

OMFG! Perhaps double what I expected of her during her first week. Still, we shall gets HITS final prediction sometime tomorrow!

[HeatSeeker]

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news08280m01

Speak Now Could Result in Sales of a Million PIeces

October 27, 2010

And a 20-year-old came to save them.
Country crossover star Taylor Swift won't be of drinking age until Dec. 13, but she's already celebrating, as Christmas comes early for the record industry.

The voice of a teen generation released her third album this week, Speak Now, on Scott Borchetta's Nashville-based Big Machine label along with Universal Republic, which has the industry partying like it's 1999, and we don't mean the sale price for a deluxe double album.

Between physical sales and a record-setting pace for digital downloads, the album forecast is between 900k and the magic million mark. The race to that milestone, the first album to do so since Lil Wayne's Tha Carter III in 2008, will provide a measure of suspense to next week's HITS sales chart, based on the response from those music retailers who haven't turned their storefronts into local Tea Party headquarters.

It would also be the largest first week for a Country artist since Shania Twain's Up sold 874k in Nov. 2002, and the first Country artist to go over a million since Garth Brooks' Double Live moved 1.085m in the good old days of Nov. 1998.

Swift's Speak Now is also approaching the year's top digital sales week, held by Eminem's Recovery, behind only Coldplay's Viva La Vida. The album immediately becomes a contender to topple the hip-hop-star's release for the year's best seller, which is now at 2.86m and counting.

The week's only other notable release is Warner Bros. deluxe Michael Buble album, Crazy Love (Hollywood the Deluxe EP), which is on target for between 20-25k in first-week sales.

The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 10% vs. same week last year and now down 13% year to date. You may now check your clothing for bed bugs. And oh, yeah, for everyone in California... Vote yes on Proposition 19 in favor of legal marijuana.

[Wayne]

Just...WOW. Seriously, ohmygod. Its amazing sales for her

[HeatSeeker]

Updated Chart Preview

Country music extends its run of #1s to five of the last six weeks as Taylor Swift is poised to make history on next week's chart. At midweek, and barring an iTunes server meltdown or Target suddenly shutting its doors, Swift will score the largest first week ever for a female country artist, besting Shania Twain's Up debut of 874k in 2002. Can she beat Lil Wayne's 1.005m from 2008? She has that number clearly in her sights. And if she does, will it be by enough to unseat Garth Brooks' mark of 1.085m debut with Double Live in 1998?

The last time a record debuted at close to or over a million (Lil Wayne in the week ending 6/15/08), the Top 15 totaled almost 2.1m. No such luck next week as it's shaping up to be a whopping 600k less. Here's how it all looks headed into the Halloween weekend.

*Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 975k-1m
Sugarland (Mercury Nashville) 85-90k
Kings of Leon (RCA/RMG) 70-75k
Lil Wayne (Cash Money/Universal Motown) 40-45k
Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 35-40k
Glee Cast Rocky Horror Glee Show (Columbia) 28-32k
Elton John & Leon Russell (Decca) 28-32k
Rod Stewart (J/RMG) 24-27k
Darius Rucker (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 24-27k
*Michael Buble Hollywood: The Deluxe EP (Reprise) 21-24k
The Band Perry (Universal Republic Nashville) 18-21k
Kenny Chesney (BNA/SME Nashville) 18-21k
Zac Brown Band (Atlantic) 18-21k
Shakira (Epic) 18-21k
Trey Songz (Atlantic) 18-21k
Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 18-21k
*Debuts (10/28p)

[Neil]

Owch for Glee. Was expecting a rise after the show. None of the Rocky Horror songs are doing well on iTunes either!
How exciting is it that she'll have the highest debut sales ever for a country female artist :D

Oh gosh I hope she can crack a million xD

[Sergeant Pepper]

If she can achieve this with her third album, what will her fourth album sell? Those are numbers I think will range 1.2-1.5 million first week in the US :D

[Wayne]

Owch for Glee. Was expecting a rise after the show. None of the Rocky Horror songs are doing well on iTunes either!
How exciting is it that she'll have the highest debut sales ever for a country female artist :D

Oh gosh I hope she can crack a million xD

Very exciting indeed! A long way before she reaches Shania's level of success though - Shania was not only having massive opening weeks, but also unrivalled (by any act in US chart history) longevity at the time, selling over 100,000 copies for 60 something consecutive weeks!

Now the hype over her opening week is dying down, I'm more interested in what her second week drop will be?

[Neil]

LOL Wayne that's impossible as it would be have sold at least 7 million if that was right, but it's 'only' 11x platinum (double album)... I can't get RIAA database to load here at work but I assume that certification is correct.

Up! Stayed in the top 100 for 60 weeks, (Taylor has done better) it most certainly did not sell 100k each of those weeks!

Wiki has it down as 5.8million (yes, wiki I know lol) but Taylor sold 6 million copies of Fearless, and in this day and age that's just unheard of. 6 million in 2002 was still amazing but there were others doing it as well.

[Wayne]

No I'm speaking of Come On Over you tart LOL - Up! only sold 5.5m copies (hence its 11m shipments)

[HeatSeeker]

Her 2nd week drop will be pretty big I think, since she doesn't have a huge single out right now...Mine is doing well but it's not a blockbuster so I can see her dropping to 350K or less.

[Sergeant Pepper]

She should really release a second single.

[Wayne]

Added a poll to the thread! :) Please vote!!

I voted 'no' as I don't think (despite really wanting) that she'll score the magic milli!

[Neil]

An optimistic 'Yes'.

[Neil]

No need for the poll, Wayne ;)

TAYLOR MADE: Drum roll, please. Taylor Swift's Speak Now (Big Machine/Universal Republic) will forever hold a piece of history. The album is now a lock to sell more than a million copies its first week, and wonderers are wondering how high that total could go. Swift is also set to break the mark for percentage of total sales in a single week, with 17-18%, topping NSYNC's record of 15.3% back in March 2000, when No Strings Attached sold 2.4 million. That means one out of every five CDs or download sales this week will be the Taylor Swift album. Whoa. (11/1p)

[Wayne]

Oh check her out!

[Sergeant Pepper]

I think she can get that million! :legend:

[Wayne]

CHART DATE: 11/01/2010
LAST UPDATE: 11/01/2010 09:28:56
NOW IN: 54.02%


LW TW artist / album label power index
-- 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 575,525
SPEAK NOW
1 2 SUGARLAND MERCURY NASHVILLE 60,404
INCREDIBLE MACHINE
2 3 KINGS OF LEON RCA/RMG 21,842
COME AROUND SUNDOWN
5 4 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 21,413
I AM NOT A HUMAN BEING
8 5 EMINEM SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 20,289
RECOVERY
9 6 DARIUS RUCKER CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 17,363
CHARLESTON, SC 1966
13 7 THE BAND PERRY UNIV REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 16,703
THE BAND PERRY
-- 8 MICHAEL BUBLE REPRISE 16,074
HOLLYWOOD: THE DELUXE EP
14 9 KENNY CHESNEY BNA/RCA NASHVILLE 15,967
HEMINGWAY'S WHISKEY
12 10 HANNAH MONTANA FOREVER WALT DISNEY 14,757
SOUNDTRACK
25 11 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 35 CAPITOL/EMI 14,137
VARIOUS ARTISTS
17 12 TREY SONGZ ATLANTIC 13,903
PASSION PAIN & PLEASURE
19 13 TOBY KEITH SHOW DOG 13,233
BULLETS IN THE GUN
16 14 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 13,218
YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
4 15 ROD STEWART J RECORDS/RMG 12,889
FLY ME TO THE MOON
15 16 BIG TIME RUSH NICKELODOEN 12,854
B.T.R.
18 17 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE HOLLYWOOD 12,465
A YEAR WITHOUT RAIN
23 18 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJMG 12,337
MY WORLD 2.0
29 19 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 11,719
NEED YOU NOW
22 20 KATY PERRY CAPITOL/EMI 11,065
TEENAGE DREAM
7 21 SHAKIRA EPIC 10,739
SALE EL SOL
21 22 LINKIN PARK WARNER BROS. 9,790
A THOUSAND SUNS
-- 23 MICHAEL BUBLE REPRISE 9,499
CRAZY LOVE
35 24 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 8,708
MERRY LITTLE CHRISTMAS
6 25 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 8,701
ROCKY HORROR GLEE SHOW
3 26 ELTON JOHN & LEON RUSSEL DECCA 8,364
UNION
40 27 BILLY CURRINGTON MERCURY NASHVILLE 7,666
ENJOY YOURSELF
45 28 MIRANDA LAMBERT COLUMBIA NASHVILLE 7,511
REVOLUTION
30 29 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 6,777
HANDS ALL OVER
33 30 JAMEY JOHNSON MERCURY NASHVILLE 6,406
GUITAR SONG
43 31 LADY GAGA INTERSCOPE 6,219
FAME
24 32 BRUNO MARS NEW ELEKTRA 6,010
DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS
-- 33 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 5,726
FEARLESS
44 34 FANTASIA J RECORDS/RMG 5,640
BACK TO ME
49 35 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 4,981
FOUNDATION
50 36 USHER LAFACE/JLG 4,913
VERSUS
-- 37 KEM UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 4,609
INTIMACY
31 38 SANTANA ARISTA/RMG 4,486
GUITAR HEAVEN: GREATEST GUITAR
42 39 RICK ROSS DEF JAM/IDJ 4,287
TEFLON DON
39 40 DRAKE YM/CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 4,123
THANK ME LATER
-- 41 KE$HA KEMOSABE/RCA/RMG 3,777
ANIMAL
41 42 DISTURBED REPRISE 3,750
ASYLUM
37 43 WAKA FLOCKA FLAME ASYLUM/WB 3,451
FLOCKAVELI
20 44 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 3,407
SIGH NO MORE
-- 45 KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE 3,169
KIDZ BOP 18
10 46 THIRD DAY PROVIDENT/REUNION 3,012
MOVE
-- 47 SENSES FAIL VAGRANT 2,890
FIRE
34 48 ALL THAT REMAINS PROSTHETIC 2,847
FOR WE ARE MANY
-- 49 SARA BAREILLES EPIC 2,771
KALEIDOSCOPE HEART
38 50 ERIC CLAPTON REPRISE 2,577
CLAPTON

:D

[Neil]

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
-- 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 1,044,477 --
-- 36 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 9,667 --

Ya know, I thought 'Fearless' might sell at least 20k this week.
But yes. OMG. Such amazing sales, can't wait to see what Billboard has :)

[HeatSeeker]

She did it! Now i'm interested to see how steep her fall will be next week.

Yay for Katy + Bieber gaining